🔗 Share this article

A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."

New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has got something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Request for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."