🔗 Share this article

Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Significant resources is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, persist.

Political Considerations

It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.